CCNet – 20 January 2010
The Climate Policy Network
Natural Gas Can Supply World For 250 Years, Says IEA
Supplies of natural gas could last more than 250 years if Asian and European economies follow the U.S. unconventional reserves, the International Energy Agency said. --United Press International, 19 January 2011
I have been studying the energy markets for 30 years, and I am convinced that shale gas will revolutionize the industry—and change the world—in the coming decades. It will prevent the rise of any new cartels. It will alter geopolitics. And it will slow the transition to renewable energy. –Amy Myers Jaffe, The Wall Street Journal, 10 May 2010
Chinese geologists have detected "super-thick" oil and gas-bearing stratums (sic) in the northern part of the South China Sea and identified 38 offshore oil and gas-bearing basins, a senior official said on Saturday. Wang Min, vice-minister of land and resources, said thanks to the efforts of the geologists, new resources detected in the past 10 years accounted for about half of all resources found in the past half century, and the amount of new resources found each year has surpassed their annual consumption. – China Daily, 19 January 2011
It is virtually impossible for the world to keep within the CO2 limits defined as safe for the climate, according to the chief economist of the International Energy Agency think tank. Dr Fatih Birol told an audience in London that key nations were not prepared to take the steps necessary to cut carbon growth. He also warned that efforts to tackle climate change through renewable energy were under threat from the world revolution in unconventional gas sources. --Roger Harrabin, BBC News, 19 January 2011
Researchers at the Tyndall Centre at the University of Manchester claim to have demonstrated how the extraction of shale gas risks seriously contaminating ground and surface waters – without providing any scientific evidence to back their claim. --The Engineer, 18 January 2011
1) Natural Gas Can Supply World For 250 Years, Says IEA - United Press International, 19 January 2011
2) China Is Swimming In New Oil And Gas - China Daily, 19 January 2011
3) Emission Impossible: Is It All Over For Climate Alarmism? - BBC News, 19 January 2011
4) Bill Gates Jumps Into Oil Exploration; Brazil's Reserves to Double? - Al Fin Energy 19 January 2011
5) UK Shale-Gas Report Lacks Scientific Evidence - The Engineer, 18 January 2011
6) Shale Gas Will Rock the World: October Natural Gas Production Sets Another New All-Time Record - Carpe Diem, 19 January 2011
1) Natural Gas Can Supply World For 250 Years, Says IEA
United Press International, 19 January 2011
Supplies of natural gas could last more than 250 years if Asian and European economies follow the U.S. unconventional reserves, the IEA said.
The abundance of shale gas and other forms of so-called unconventional gas discovered in the United States prompted a global rush to explore for the new resource.
The International Energy Agency said Australia is taking the lead in the push toward unconventional gas, though China, India and Indonesia are close behind. European companies are taking preliminary steps to unlock unconventional gas as are other regions.
"Production of 'unconventional' gas in the U.S. has rocketed in the past few years, going beyond even the most optimistic forecasts," said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a gas analyst at the IEA. "It is no wonder that its success has sparked such international interest."
Shale gas production in the United States is booming and the IEA estimates that unconventional gas makes up around 12 percent of the global supply.
Global supplies of natural gas could last for another 130 years at current consumption rates. That time frame could double with unconventional gas, the IEA said.
"Despite the many uncertainties associated with production, countries are still prepared to take risks and invest time and money in exploration and production, because of the potential long-term benefits," Corbeau said.
2) China Is Swimming In New Oil And Gas
Chinese geologists have detected "super-thick" oil and gas-bearing stratums (sic) in the northern part of the South China Sea and identified 38 offshore oil and gas-bearing basins, a senior official said on Saturday.
The outskirts of Songliao Basin in Northeast China, Yin'e Basin in North China and Qiangtang Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have also been found to have rich oil and gas resources, Wang Min, vice-minister of land and resources, said at a national conference in Beijing.
In addition, 192.7 billion tons of coal resources have been found in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, and four 10,000-ton sandstone-type uranium mines have been located in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, he said.
Wang said these latest discoveries, particularly those at sea, have given direction for China's future resource exploration.
Conducting more geological inspections at the above regions has been set as one of the ministry's major working tasks this year.
Comprehensive geological and environmental inspections will be conducted at key offshore areas such as the southern region of Yellow Sea, the northern part of the South China Sea, East China's Liaodong Bay and regions near South China's Hainan Island, according to the ministry.
Wang said the country has also made a breakthrough in locating new energy resources. Natural gas hydrate has been found for the first time in the northern region of the South China Sea and frozen-soil areas at Qilian Mountain.
And a 2.46-million-ton lithium carbonate mine has been located in Southwest China's Tibet autonomous region, which will reduce the cost of lithium production and help with the country's new energy industry.
Due to China's rapid economic growth in the past 10 years, the country's energy consumption has been growing rapidly and become more dependent on imports.
Right now, China has become the biggest consumer of coal, steel, alumina, copper and cement.
More than half of the country's petroleum and iron consumption, about 70 percent of its copper consumption and 64 percent of sylvite consumption now rely on imports, according to figures released by the Ministry of Land and Recourses on Saturday.
Wang said thanks to the efforts of the geologists, new resources detected in the past 10 years accounted for about half of all resources found in the past half century, and the amount of new resources found each year has surpassed their annual consumption.
3) Emission Impossible: Is It All Over For Climate Alarmism?
Roger Harrabin
It is virtually impossible for the world to keep within the CO2 limits defined as safe for the climate, according to the chief economist of the International Energy Agency think tank. Dr Fatih Birol told an audience in London that key nations were not prepared to take the steps necessary to cut carbon growth.
He also applauded the UK's high fuel taxes, and warned that the shale gas revolution would put pressure on the development of renewable energy sources worldwide.
But it was his comments on climate change that seemed to cause the biggest buzz among the audience that packed a huge lecture theatre at Imperial College London.
The world's governments at the recent climate conference in Cancun agreed that greenhouse gases should be kept within the limit associated by scientists with a 2C temperature rise.
But as progress in cutting emissions has crawled along in recent years that public position has looked like an increasingly unrealistic facade.
And there appeared widespread relief that Dr Birol said the unsayable - that peaking emissions by 2020 was virtually impossible, and that in those circumstances we could "kiss goodbye" to the 2C target.
"We would need to double decarbonisation efforts, then double them again to keep emissions (of CO2 and equivalent gases) within 450 parts per million," he said. "The bulk of the effort needs to take place in countries where climate change is not high on the policy agenda. We have to be realistic."
Blame game
Dr Birol referred to the debate in Europe as to whether the EU would cut emissions by 20% or 30% by 2020 against 1990 levels. The difference between these two targets, he said, was equivalent to just two weeks of China's emissions.
He said the West could not blame China because per capita emissions and car ownership there were still comparatively very low and he urged the UK and EU continue with "climate leadership".
Dr Birol also warned that efforts to tackle climate change through renewable energy were under threat from the world revolution in unconventional gas sources. He said the shale gas boom in the US has already led to a gas rush which had contributed to a 50% drop in investment in renewable energy.
And the US boom, he said, had a knock-on global effect. The fact that the US has suddenly found that it is independent in gas supplies means it doesn't have to import gas.
That means the nations gearing up to sell gas to the US have to find other markets, which is forcing down prices.
"There's suddenly much more gas available in the world than previously thought," he told BBC News.
"It's cheaper than it was and the supply is more assured. And it's only half as polluting as coal. There will be strong debates between energy and climate and finance ministries round the world about whether investment should continue to support renewables when the situation on gas has so radically changed."
This debate hasn't started in earnest in the UK but it surely will. Firms like Shell are already bidding to get carbon capture and storage on gas fired power stations treated to the same subsidies bestowed on renewables.
Ministers will be asked to explain why we should invest in expensive intermittent wind power if gas with the carbon captured can supply energy more reliably and possibly more cheaply.
End of an era
And the gas price may go cheaper still if purchasing nations succeed in de-coupling gas price rises from oil prices, in the way they have in the US
4) Bill Gates Jumps Into Oil Exploration; Brazil's Reserves to Double?
Bill Gates has read the tea leaves, and thinks that there is money in advanced oil exploration technologies.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is tossing his financial support behind a Houston company which hopes to utilize detailed analytics and measurement technologies to take some of the guesswork out of onshore oil and gas exploration. NEOS GeoSolutions -- whose investors include the legendary venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and investment bank Goldman Sachs -- today announced a $60 million investment from Gates and others.
The company touts itself as a "geosciences company where Silicon Valley meets the oil patch," and Gates' involvement certainly adds some big-name technology credentials to the mix. According to the company's Web site, NEOS can can help oil, gas and mining companies more efficiently explore the Earth's subsurface.We do this by integrating a broad range of geological and geophysical (G&G) data – including data available in the public domain, owned by our clients, or acquired using proprietary NEOS platforms – to produce a highly constrained 3D model of the subsurface. By applying the latest geostatistical techniques, we help our clients determine which portions of a basin might be the most prospective and, at the lease level, what areas are most likely to contain commercial quantities of hydrocarbons or minerals. --TechFlash
Brazil's oil reserves may be set to double in extent:
Brazilian oil deposits below a layer of salt in the Atlantic Ocean hold at least 123 billion barrels of reserves, more than double government estimates, according to a university study by a former Petroleo Brasileiro SA geologist. The research, which set out to show government figures were overly optimistic, found they underestimated the area's potential, said Hernani Chaves, a professor at the Rio de Janeiro State University who worked at Petrobras for 35 years. The forecast, which the study puts at a 90 percent probability, compares with 50 billion barrels estimated by Brazil's oil regulator, known as ANP. "We started with a skeptical view and finished with bigger numbers," --Bloomberg
Coal to rival oil in energy production by 2030
Green coal may come to India within 2 years
GE to assist Shenhua in providing clean coal technology to China
Renewables bubble bursting in Spain and France. German and Scandinavian power grid managers are not very happy about the renewables bubble either.
The world is floating in hydrocarbon energy resources. Humans in developed societies must choose between the lefty-Luddite dieoff.orgiast philosophy -- as promoted by Obama's merry band of energy starvationists -- or a cleaner and more abundant future of limitless resources released by the unbound human mind.
5) UK Shale-Gas Report Lacks Scientific Evidence
Researchers at the Tyndall Centre at the University of Manchester claim to have demonstrated how the extraction of shale gas risks seriously contaminating ground and surface waters – without providing any scientific evidence to back their claim.
Working on behalf of the Co-operative, the researchers investigated the environmental and climate change impacts of shale gas – a new fossil fuel resource already developed in the US and being considered for imminent extraction and use in the UK.
Despite massive expansion of the US shale gas industry over recent years, there is little reliable data on groundwater contamination caused by hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') – drilling a well 1.5-6km below the surface and pumping a mixture of water, sand and chemicals into the shale at pressures up to 100MPa.
The Co-op-backed report pointed out that a Environmental Protection Agency was due to report the findings of a $2m study on the issue later this year. It also noted that there had been moves to tighten regulations by New York State, as well as anecdotal evidence of harmful chemical reaching water supplies.
Calling for a moratorium on shale gas development, the study said: "Information on health and environmental aspects is of variable quality and only now is there any systematic effort being undertaken to better understand these issues."
However, rather than present any evidence on the health risks associated with shale gas extraction, most of the researchers' case against shale gas focused on climate-change arguments.
Prof Kevin Anderson at the Tyndall Centre and the University of Manchester, commenting: "Any new fossil fuel resource will only lead to additional carbon emissions. In the case of shale gas there is also a significant risk its use will delay the introduction of renewable energy alternatives."
One of the companies mentioned in the report, IGas Energy is developing its coal bed methane (CBM) resources. The company also has some shale gas acreage in its licence areas, but has no immediate plans to develop it at present.
CBM is extracted by a completely different process to shale gas and doesn't involve the same complicated fracturing techniques and mix of chemicals as shale gas extraction.
"Shale - like CBM and indeed all other forms gas production - is subject to the UK regulatory regime which is one of the strictest in the world, and certainly is more rigorous than that in the US," said an IGas spokesman.
The risks from all gas production need to be identified and mitigated to the satisfaction of the HSE and, where appropriate, various environmental agencies and local planning permission, IGas also emphasised.
"Shale gas does not emit much more carbon in its production and use than conventional gas and could potentially make a significant contribution to the UK's energy resources and increase its security of supply, and the regulatory regime is in place to make sure that environmental concerns are addressed," said the spokesman.
Likewise, a Department of Energy and Climate Change spokesman said: 'We support the industry's endeavours in pursuing such energy sources, provided that tapping of such resources proves to be economically, commercially and environmentally viable.
'All onshore oil and gas projects, including shale gas exploration and development, are subject to a series of checks, including local planning permission before they are able to move ahead with drilling activities.'
6) Shale Gas Will Rock the World: October Natural Gas Production Sets Another New All-Time Record
According to data from the EIA, more natural gas produced was produced in October - 2,330,551 million cubic feet - than in any previous month in U.S. history (see chart above). I couldn't find this reported elsewhere, so I'm claiming this as a "Carpe Diem exclusive"!
As John Tierney reported recently in the New York Times:
"The really good news is the discovery of vast quantities of natural gas. It's now selling for less than half of what it was five years ago. There's so much available that the Energy Department is predicting low prices for gas and electricity for the next quarter-century."
As the EIA reported in December:
"Domestic proved reserves of oil and natural gas increased significantly in 2009. U.S. natural gas proved reserves increased by 11 percent in 2009 to 284 trillion cubic feet. This is their highest level since 1971, despite an approximate one-third decline in the prices used to assess economic viability for 2009 reserves as compared to the prices used in 2008. U.S. crude oil plus lease condensate proved reserves rose 9 percent to 22.3 billion barrels in 2009, regaining 1.8 billion barrels of the 2.3 billion barrel decline in 2008. These increases demonstrate the possibility of an expanding role for domestic natural gas and crude oil in meeting both current and projected U.S. energy demands."
As Amy Myers Jaffe wrote in the Wall Street Journal:"We've always known the potential of shale; we just didn't have the technology to get to it at a low enough cost. Now new techniques have driven down the price tag—and set the stage for shale gas to become what will be the game-changing resource of the decade.
I have been studying the energy markets for 30 years, and I am convinced that shale gas will revolutionize the industry—and change the world—in the coming decades. It will prevent the rise of any new cartels. It will alter geopolitics. And it will slow the transition to renewable energy."The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 1 Carlton House, London SW1Y 5DB
Director: Dr Benny Peiser
http://www.thegwpf.org
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